Paper Title :Parameters Estimation of Linear, Quadratic and Exponential Models for Energy Demand Forecasting by using ABC Algorithm
Author :Semih Ozden, Yusuf Sonmez, Ahmet Mavi, Veysel Ozdemir
Article Citation :Semih Ozden ,Yusuf Sonmez ,Ahmet Mavi ,Veysel Ozdemir ,
(2018 ) " Parameters Estimation of Linear, Quadratic and Exponential Models for Energy Demand Forecasting by using ABC Algorithm " ,
International Journal of Electrical, Electronics and Data Communication (IJEEDC) ,
pp. 12-15,
Volume-6,Issue-6
Abstract : The accurate energy demand forecasting is important issue for energy supplier companies. Especially, the electrical
energy price is defined one day ago depending on energy demands. Developed accurate model increases management capacity
and efficient usage of power plants. Despite the fact that, In Turkey, transformer based energy measurement for a specific
region is still developing topic and application, the consumption data for a specific region can be very limited. In cases where
there is limited data, modeling is a difficult task to perform. Although there are several methods have been proposed before,
they suffers from forecasted values close to real ones efficiently. In this study, a model was developed to forecast electrical
energy consumption in a specific industrial region in Turkey. In the model, the energy consumption of an industrial region
between years of 2014 – 2016 was considered as output values and temperature and energy consumption values belonging one
day ago are defined as input values. The output values were estimated by giving input values to the model, which is based on
linear, quadratic and exponential functions. In the study, parameters of these functions were defined by Artificial Bee Colony
Algorithm (ABC) by minimizing the error value between predicted and real values. Results obtained from three different
functions were compared with each other and shown as graphically. Results show that the ABC algorithm can define the
parameters of functions very accurately by decreasing the error value very close to zero.
Index Terms - Energy demand forecasting, Artificial Bee Colony, parameter estimation, linear regression
Type : Research paper
Published : Volume-6,Issue-6
Copyright: © Institute of Research and Journals
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Published on 2018-08-13 |
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