Phase-Wise Stochastic, Scaling and Dynamical Analysis of Pan-India Covid-19 Outbreak
Abstract - In this present study the everyday new cases of COVID-19 pan India is the target dataset. Such time series data set with a span from 30.01.2020 to 04.10.2021 is under observation. Different stochastic parameters (summary statistics) as well as few dynamical characteristics of the outbreak such as stationarity/non- stationarity and fractal dimension will be classified to infer internal dynamics of the pandemic as well as phase wise scaling with different window size has been done exploiting Hurst exponent estimation. The daily spread of Covid-19 in India is governed by non-stationary process with the characteristics of fractional Brownian motion and having some fractal nature as found in the study. The study says that the pandemic may continue in a sustained fluctuation without any further massive outbreak ruling out the possibility of 3rd wave with gross spread in the country.
Keywords - Covid-19, Scaling, Fractality, Hurst Exponent, Wavelet Variance Analysis, Higuchi.